This was a weird week for me. I knew after breaking SPY 153 that it was a clear rejection of the lows of the previous week. I moved slightly bullish after seeing that, and I incorrectly expected a brief pullback to exit my shorts and enter longs. The market gave me no chance to do this, so I doubled, tripled, even quadrupled down on most, if not all of my short positions, and averaged up (or down i.e. SPXU, VXX).
So, in sum, I correctly called the bullish move (but way underestimated its power) and remained stubbornly short, moving more and more chips to the center of the table.
SO... HOW DID YOU DO?:
I did well, especially considering I was 98% short the whole week. Here are my closed trades:
GS total of 1% gains (short) - large
BX .7% gains (short) - small
DDD 2.6% (short) - small
SKUL 1% (short) - small
BLOX 0.1% (short) - small
SPY puts 4% (long) - small
NOW 0.05% (short) -small
SPY calls 8% (long) - small
MTG 5.9% (short) - small/medium
FRAN 0.8% (short) - small
INTC 0.5% (short) - medium
VXX 1.1% (long) - medium
EBAY 0.05% (short) - small
EDU 1.5% (short) - small
The week's total closed positions are +27%... my open positions are down a collective 12%.
Umm, I am not happy that I correctly called the market, and was too late to join, and then underestimated its strength. It is like knowing where the train is going, and knowing when it will arrive, but figuring that it will wait for me - and then after I miss it, is blows by every stop to make my destination in record time/persistence! This is my fault for trying to time the market, rather than just play what one sees. I am happy that I had a profitable week playing the 'wrong side' of the market. The real answer really depends on Monday - if we get a 5-10 point pullback, I would be thrilled, and can exit at least half of my shorts - SPXU and SPY puts will likely be for a loss, while TVIX and VXX would then likely be flat or green. LNG, CJES, BX and maybe volatility are longer term plays, and I am willing to hold and average up my shorts into the late spring.
Until Monday, enjoy your weekend!