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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Selling? Volume? SOOO Happy to See You!!


Sorry, I ran into a unforeseen busy period in my life. Everything is fine, thanks for asking. Just busy running here and there, business stuff, family stuff, friend stuff, etc etc. 


I am in love. These days were awesome, not only because I am short and made out like a bandit, but because it is so nice to see some volume in the market. We had some huge volume days, some buying and selling, rapid covering, surprise news, etc. This was awesome. This is why I trade. I love that the bears came back to life. The market is most healthy when the bull/bear quarrel exists. 


Lots and lots. 

IYT: Has shown a small bit of weakness, but the pullback looks muted, very mild. Extremely strong sector. 

XLF: Appears to be very toppy here. The news from Cyprus is certainly not helping, nor is the GS weakness. Realistic target is in the 17.70 to 18 range. Looks WAY too strong to pull back much more than that. 

SPY: Series of lower lows and lower highs over the last 4 trading days. This is a welcome sight. If the selling continues, look for a bounce around 152.6 or so (that is where the SPX will fill its gap - obvious). 

EUR/USD: The beating continues. This is in a slow trend down. A test of the 1.265 area seems all but certain. Over the summer, I expect this to break that low, and test the 1.20 level. There needs to be a mini-bounce soon... maybe this week or the next is my guess. 


I have made several trades in the last few days (most were today though)

Sold VXX for +2.75%, TVIX for 2.5%, 20% of my SPXU for .5% loss, and I lost 50% on some SPY puts (153's and 155's)  from last week, and gained about 70% on some others (155's and 156's). (Thank you Cyprus!). 

Open: BAC long (12.70), HES long (69.50), EDU short (16.64), BX short (19.32), LNG short (22.04), SPXU 29.30)

YES!! I killed it the last few days, and my account has made new highs. I am SO pumped we had a brief sell off. I can at least feel comfortable going with a few longs again... I generally perform terribly in long slow trends up or down... LNG (my position is -11% or so) is a bit concerning, but I will wait to see how it does in April. Everything else is more than acceptable. 


It should be fun with the FED and all. News from Europe will continue to drive this market - the FED reaction could go either way, so stay nimble and small. Remember, the initial reaction to the FED announcement is USUALLY the correct one. I am expecting a choppy sell off into the SPY 152-153 range this week. I expect that weakness to get bought up for one last push up before summer time. My desire is to transition from mostly short to slightly long during this week - that is the plan - but we all know the market will do what it wants to do... rarely do I correctly predict something like this. 

We will see!


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