My actively updated as I trade spreadsheet is here: TRADING SPREADSHEET LINK

Monday, March 4, 2013


SLAPPED: Well, I will readily admit that I thought around 12:30 PM ET, that we were ready to roll over on the SPY... Then the dip buyers came in again (2013 theme) and lifted the market back up, almost a 1% move off the lows. A punch to the face!!! Not really though. 

TRADES MADE: Today's closed trades were all profitable - another great day (but I am holding a few that are now underwater) :

Closed: VXX for 0.5%, EDU for 1.5%, LNG for 1%, EBAY for 1% GS for .4%, BTU for 1% - a 5% gainer of a day! not bad. 


Open: SPXU ($30.54) down 1%, EBAY ($54.83) down about 1%, VXX ($23.11) -0.25%, LNG ($20.31) -1%, INTC scratch, GS ($150.75) down 1%. 

I am perfectly happy with carrying all of these positions over night, even for a few days... the most concerning thing for the bearish community today is the transport sector, IYT. Up over 1% today and made new ALL TIME highs. 

The EUR/USD actually came back and went green at the end of our trading day. Bonds were down, equities were up, and VXX got hammered, down 5.25% (!). 

A CHANGE IN TREND: This was the first green Monday of 2013. Will "Turnaround Tuesdays" return?

WHAT DO I EXPECT: If the IYT and XLF stays as strong as they have been, good luck bears. We are not going down anytime soon. SPY is very close to the break out point at 153. So, caution goes to the bears, and 'risk on' if that number breaks tomorrow. Today's activity has pushed me from the slightly bearish camp, to the slightly bullish camp. I will continue trading lightly. Not like this really matters, as this was the theme for 2012, but volume today was pretty low. UP days = low volume, Down days = large volume, that theme continues on. 

MISTAKE: Yes, I made a mistake today - and I am not happy about it. I have a position in SPXU and my goal was a 1% gain. When we started selling off, and IWM was looking rough around noon today - I got greedy and looked for more - I actually moved UP my sell order from $30.95 to $31.10. This simple move cost me a nice 1% gain. On top of that, I chose not to sell my position flat, or even for a small loss. I let it ride, ride all the way down so now it is 1% underwater. This was a fools move, and I fess up that I made it. 


Til Manana, take care!

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