My actively updated as I trade spreadsheet is here: TRADING SPREADSHEET LINK

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Runaway DAX

WHERE ARE WE?: The DAX continues its run, up 1% today. The SPY has followed, although in a muted way. What is amazing is that the EUR/USD has stayed flat, not bouncing in the least. As a review, we have gone from short term oversold last week, to short term overbought this week - we have advanced 60+ ES_F points off the lows in just one week. We have rallied 15% in 4 month from mid-November. These are crazy numbers.

RALLY TIME? We might be experiencing that last bit of euphoric buying that is seen before tops (not calling a top mind you, just stating that this activity is a bit abnormal). It is interesting to note how last week, many bears were out, saying "this is it, this is where we drop 5%...". This week has changed - all headlines have changed to: "All Time Highs", "A New Bull Market", and "Next Stop, DOW 15k"... The majority of media has turned quite bullish, sucking low end retail into the market. I will participate, but only lightly.

TODAY: With the DAX as strong as it is, expect a green close today, I will not be looking to fade this gap. I will still short individual names, and will focus on buying stocks off the dip - names like MPC.

Good luck today folks, check out my spreadsheet if you would like, ask questions to me in the chat, or in the comments section. Take care!

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