TODAY:
Very boring again. SPX range was 9 points... but it was just kind of a melt up all day. This morning had potential, but the low volume push up, that is 2013 trading, took over again.
SURPRISES:
IYT was the big surprise, finishing UP 1.5%... That is HUGE. Many view the transports as a leading indicator, and that indicator is trending up and showing no signs of slowing. This is VERY bullish.
XLF ended up 0.3%, another healthy move up. GS was battling red and green and ended flat.
EUR/USD was weak sauce all day long, down as much as 0.85%, and down about 0.55% as I write this. In a normal market (and it is clear this is not a normal market) - a rule of thumb is that the EUR/USD loosely mirrors the US indices. If EUR is down .5%, expect the SPX to be down roughly .5%. Well, there has been a complete decoupling of this relationship. EUR has gone from 1.37 to 1.29, a 6-7% decline, while the SPX has gone up 3+% over the last 6 weeks. Weird.
The DJIA finished green for the 9th straight day. It has been 12 years since that last happened. Wow.
My Trades:
Minimal. I only added a few SPY puts to my already short-biased positions.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
Who knows. This is OPEX week and anything can happen. I am expecting a fair amount of chop, and we will probably go neither up or down until Monday. The DOW broke its 12 year streak of not allowing more than 8 straight green days. 9 straight days have now finished positive - and 11 out of the last 12. This is just weird. Volume is gone. Europe does not really matter. I should be long enjoying this melt, but call me a fool, I just can't participate... It is my Achilles heel; my weakness (slowly trending up or down markets). I remain lightly committed, in mainly shorts. I will trade heavy again (long or short) when I see a small pullback, a well defined topping pattern, or a nice base from which we can jump to new highs.
Good day ladies (?) and gentlemen.
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